The UN's latest assessment of national climate plans shows countries will achieve only half the emission reductions projected a year earlier. The analysis reviewed nationally determined contributions (NDCs) from 154 countries covering roughly 71% of global emissions, along with current policies elsewhere.
Under these plans, global emissions would fall to about 6% below 2019 levels by 2035. Last year's update, which analyzed 113 countries, projected a 12% reduction over the same timeframe. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change states that emissions must drop 60% by 2035 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold the report says will now be breached, at least temporarily.
The weakened outlook reflects the US exit from the Paris Agreement and weaker new pledges from other nations. Current national climate plans put the world on track for between 2.1 degrees and 3.2 degrees Celsius of warming by century's end, depending on actions after 2035. Last year's estimate projected 1.9 degrees to 3.0 degrees Celsius warming over the same period.