Analysis: China’s clean-tech exports in 2026 to avoid as much CO2 as Brazil emits in a year

China's clean-tech exports in 2026 are on track to avoid approximately 450 million tonnes of CO2 emissions globally, according to analysis by Lauri Myllyvirta at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. This figure equals roughly Brazil's annual emissions and represents nearly 2% of global emissions outside China.

The analysis, based on detailed data on clean-tech product exports, electricity systems in destination countries, and manufacturing emissions in China, shows that the impact of these exports on global CO2 emissions grew 26% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2026, following a 36% rise in 2025.

Solar equipment remains the largest contributor. China exported finished solar panels and intermediate products corresponding to 436 gigawatts of capacity in 2025, plus 8 gigawatts of wind turbines. Together, these will generate approximately 720 terawatt-hours of electricity annually. For 2026, solar and wind exports are on track to generate around 800 terawatt-hours, equivalent to output from about 100 coal-fired power plants.

Over their lifetimes, the 2025 solar exports will avoid an estimated 6,400 million tonnes of CO2 emissions.

China exported 39 million electric vehicles in 2025, including 36 million two-wheelers, 2.2 million battery electric cars, 160,000 plug-in hybrids, 15,000 buses, and 30,000 trucks. The country also exported batteries with 305 gigawatt-hours of capacity. These EV-related exports will avoid an estimated 170 million tonnes of CO2 over their lifetimes.

Manufacturing these clean-energy products in China produced 170 million tonnes of CO2 in 2025, while avoiding 370 million tonnes elsewhere. This means exported goods offset their manufacturing emissions within six months.

Global-south countries accounted for 73% of lifetime emissions avoided by 2025 exports and 87% of year-on-year growth. India ranks first among countries for avoided emissions from Chinese clean-tech imports, followed by the United States, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and Australia. The US registered a 12% increase in avoided emissions in 2026 despite higher tariffs.