Why land-use emissions have fallen by a third this century – in six charts

Emissions from land-use change have declined by roughly one-third since 2000, according to analysis presented in Carbon Brief. The drop encompasses reductions in deforestation, peatland loss, and forest degradation across the globe.

The decline represents a shift from earlier decades when land-use change drove substantial carbon releases. Between 2000 and the early 2020s, these emissions fell from their peak levels, though they remain a significant source of atmospheric carbon. The reduction reflects both slowing rates of forest loss in certain regions and increased forest regrowth in others, particularly in parts of Asia and Europe where reforestation efforts have taken hold.

Tropical deforestation remains the largest driver of land-use emissions, concentrated primarily in Brazil, Indonesia, and Congo Basin nations. Brazil's deforestation rates fluctuated considerably over the period, with recent years showing both increases and decreases depending on enforcement of environmental protections. Indonesia's peatland conversion slowed after the early 2000s peak, though drainage and degradation of existing peatlands continue to release carbon.

The overall decline does not indicate the crisis is solved. Land-use change still accounts for roughly 10-15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions annually. Tropical forest loss accelerated in recent years in some regions, offsetting gains elsewhere. The Amazon rainforest, which absorbs more carbon than it releases when undisturbed, has approached a tipping point in certain areas where degradation now results in net emissions.

Policy interventions contributed to the decline. Brazil's enforcement of environmental laws in the 2000s and 2010s reduced deforestation rates significantly during those periods. International funding mechanisms, including payments for ecosystem services, supported forest conservation in developing nations.

The data reveals that reversing land-use emissions remains within policy reach, unlike fossil fuel emissions which require fundamental economic restructuring. However,