A new study from Transport & Environment (T&E) warns that aggressive biofuel targets will accelerate global food price inflation and deepen fertilizer shortages. The research projects global biofuel consumption will jump 30 percent this year alone, with demand climbing nearly 70 percent by 2030 as countries pursue biofuels to counter high crude oil prices.
This expansion creates a direct competition between fuel and food production. Biofuels rely heavily on agricultural feedstocks like corn, palm oil, and soy. As governments mandate higher biofuel blends in transport fuels, farmers face pressure to dedicate more cropland to energy production rather than food crops. T&E's analysis indicates this diversion will strain food availability at a moment when global food prices already face upward pressure from supply chain disruptions and geopolitical instability.
The fertilizer dimension adds another constraint. Biofuel feedstock production requires substantial nitrogen and phosphorus inputs. Competing agricultural sectors will bid up fertilizer prices further, creating a cascade effect that raises input costs for food producers worldwide. Countries dependent on fertilizer imports face particular vulnerability to price spikes and supply shortages.
Policymakers promoting biofuels as a climate solution often cite their lower carbon footprint compared to fossil fuels. However, the T&E study suggests that rapid scaling without proper land-use safeguards risks unintended consequences that could undermine both energy and food security. The analysis highlights a critical tension: transitioning transport away from oil requires alternative fuels, but expanding biofuels at this pace threatens vulnerable populations already struggling with food affordability.
The findings call into question whether current biofuel policies adequately account for food system impacts. Alternative pathways such as advanced biofuels from waste feedstocks or accelerated electrification of transport may offer pathways to decarbonization with