The World Meteorological Organization and leading climate scientists warned this week that an emerging El Niño pattern will intensify extreme weather across the globe in 2024, layering natural climate variability atop the persistent warming from greenhouse gas emissions.

El Niño, the warm phase of the Pacific Ocean's semi-regular temperature cycle, typically amplifies heat and drought in some regions while triggering heavy rainfall and floods in others. The developing event will push global temperatures higher and increase the likelihood of record-breaking heat, according to statements from the WMO. Scientists cautioned that the most severe impacts will strike vulnerable populations in Africa, Southeast Asia, and small island nations already stressed by chronic poverty and limited adaptive capacity.

The research shows El Niño effects arrive on top of a warming baseline. Since 1980, human-caused climate change has raised global average temperatures roughly 1.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This baseline shift means that El Niño-driven weather extremes now reach higher peak intensities than they would have decades ago. Fossil fuel combustion remains the dominant driver of long-term warming trends, scientists stressed, distinguishing between natural oscillations and anthropogenic climate disruption.

Wildfire seasons will likely extend and intensify across the Northern Hemisphere. Australia and southern Africa face heightened drought risk, threatening agricultural output and water supplies. Simultaneously, parts of Southeast Asia and the Pacific islands expect above-average rainfall that could trigger severe flooding and landslides.

The WMO urged governments to strengthen early-warning systems and disaster preparedness infrastructure now, before the worst impacts materialize. The window for preparation is narrow. El Niño conditions typically develop over several months once established, but forecasting models show high confidence in the pattern's arrival.

Climate scientists emphasized that while El Niño is temporary and cyclical, rising baseline temperatures are permanent without rapid emissions reductions