The Supreme Court's 2023 ruling in Allen v. Brnovich restricted the use of race as an explicit factor in redistricting decisions. Yet legal experts warn that Southern states will likely circumvent this constraint through racial gerrymandering disguised as partisan gerrymandering.

The distinction matters. Courts have consistently upheld partisan gerrymandering as constitutional, even when its effects disproportionately harm Black voters. In the South, partisan and racial gerrymandering operate as near-identical mechanisms. Republican-controlled legislatures can pack Black voters into fewer districts or scatter them across many districts to dilute their electoral power, then justify these maps purely on partisan grounds.

This structural reality stems from voting patterns. Black voters in the South overwhelmingly support Democratic candidates. When mapmakers target Democratic voters for packing or cracking, they simultaneously target Black voters by demographic coincidence, according to the legal argument. Proving discriminatory intent becomes nearly impossible under the Supreme Court's current framework.

States like North Carolina, Georgia, and Texas have already demonstrated this pattern. Their redistricting maps produce results that harm Black representation while the cartographers claim only partisan motivations. The burden of proof now falls on plaintiffs challenging maps. They must demonstrate racial intent despite legislatures' ability to cite partisan rationales.

The Voting Rights Act's Section 2 still prohibits vote dilution regardless of intent. However, recent Supreme Court decisions have narrowed Section 2's application. The Court's 2021 decision in Brnovich itself weakened protections against voting restrictions with disparate racial impacts.

Civil rights organizations argue this creates a legal gap. Partisan gerrymandering that masks racial intent remains largely unchecked. States can racially gerrymander with plausible deniability, knowing courts will accept partisan explanations. The South's historical racial polarization in voting virtually guarantees